NOAA has forecast 14 to 21 named storms of winds of 39 mph or higher.
Forecasters at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center are predicting above-average hurricane activity in 2022. Hurricane season is June 1 to November 30.
According to NOAA, this activity could make it the seventh consecutive above-average hurricane season. According to NOAA, it has provided these ranges with a 70% confidence.
The 2022 outlook for the Atlantic hurricane season predicts; a 65% chance of an above-normal season; a 25% chance of a near-normal season; and a 10% chance of a below-normal season.
“Early preparation and understanding your risk is key to being hurricane resilient and climate-ready,” said Secretary of Commerce Gina M. Raimondo in the NOAA news release. “Throughout the hurricane season, NOAA experts will work around-the-clock to provide early and accurate forecasts and warnings that communities in the path of storms can depend on to stay informed.”
NOAA has forecast 14 to 21 named storms of winds of 39 mph or higher. According to NOAA, it has provided these ranges with a 70% confidence.
Additionally, the forecast predicts 6 to 10 of these could become hurricanes of winds of 74 mph or higher. This includes 3 to 6 major hurricanes designated as category 3, 4 or 5, with winds of 111 mph or higher.
The reason hurricane season is above-average is due to factors including: La Niña; “warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea; weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds; and an enhanced west African monsoon.”
“As we reflect on another potentially busy hurricane season, past storms — such as Superstorm Sandy, which devastated the New York metro area ten years ago — remind us that the impact of one storm can be felt for years,” said NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad, Ph.D. “Since Sandy, NOAA’s forecasting accuracy has continued to improve, allowing us to better predict the impacts of major hurricanes to lives and livelihoods.”
NOAA will deploy a few efforts this hurricane season:
- NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Lab and Pacific Marine Environmental Lab operate five Saildrone uncrewed surface vehicles during the peak of the 2022 hurricane season to measure the ocean, atmosphere and areas where they meet.
- The Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast Modeling System and Hurricanes in a Multi-scale Ocean-coupled Non-hydrostatic model are now the newest version of the Weather and Climate Operational Supercomputing System for uninterrupted operational forecasts.
- The Excessive Rainfall Outlook (ERO) has been experimentally extended from three to five days of lead time and notice of rainfall-related flash flooding.
- In June, NOAA will enhance an experimental graphic that depicts the Peak Storm Surge Forecast when storm surge watches or warnings are in effect.
“Hurricane Ida spanned nine states, demonstrating that anyone can be in the direct path of a hurricane and in danger from the remnants of a storm system,” said FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell, reported NOAA. “It’s important for everyone to understand their risk and take proactive steps to get ready now by visiting Ready.gov and Listo.gov for preparedness tips, and by downloading the FEMA App to make sure you are receiving emergency alerts in real-time.”
This is not a landfall forecast, rather it is a seasonal outlook.