Aug 17, 2020

Extremely Active Hurricane Season Possible for Atlantic Basin

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, atmospheric and oceanic conditions may fuel storm development in the Atlantic Basin.

storm water monitoring

An extremely active hurricane season is possible for the Atlantic Basin.

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center, atmospheric and oceanic conditions are primed to fuel storm development in the Atlantic. 

The agency recently released its annual August update to the Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook. 

The updated outlook calls for 19-25 named storms, of which 7-11 will become hurricanes, including 3-6 major hurricanes, according to NOAA. The update covers the entire six-month hurricane season, which ends Nov. 30, including the nine named storms to date. 

“This is one of the most active seasonal forecasts that NOAA has produced in its 22-year history of hurricane outlooks. NOAA will continue to provide the best possible science and service to communities across the Nation for the remainder of hurricane season to ensure public readiness and safety,” said U.S. Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross. “We encourage all Americans to do their part by getting prepared, remaining vigilant, and being ready to take action when necessary.” 

The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season has had nine named storms so far and has the potential to be one of the busiest on record, according to NOAA. 

Based on the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which measures the combined intensity and duration of all named storms during the season, the likelihood of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season has increased to 85%. There is only a 10% chance of a near-normal season and a 5% chance of a below-normal season.

“This year, we expect more, stronger, and longer-lived storms than average, and our predicted ACE range extends well above NOAA’s threshold for an extremely active season,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. 

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